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Temperature check: alarm as prediction marketslean into weather and climate bets

Climate experts warn that US Kalshi and Polymarket users are ‘gamifying disasters’ as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures

This story summarizes reporting from The Guardian. Read the original for full context. Wire items stay in our news sitemap for seven days. Editorial policy.

Read full story on The Guardian →
Oliver Milman2 Sept 2026, 03:00 pmUpdated 3h ago1 min readAmericasUnited States
Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets

United States — Oliver Milman

Climate experts warn that US Kalshi and Polymarket users are ‘gamifying disasters’ as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures

Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability of the planet itself.

The rise of gamified predictions on the unfolding climate crisis, and shorter-term weather forecasts, has been underscored by a new deal that allows Kalshi, a leading online financial exchange, to access data from the Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to verify weather-related betting outcomes.

Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability of the planet itself.

This report is published with credit to The Guardian. The wire sent a summary; open the original for any extra context. Read on The Guardian →

Source: The Guardian · Oliver Milman. Published 2 Sept 2026, 03:00 pm.

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